7/26/08 – Post-conference Wrap-Up

Well, it was a great conference. This is my third year and it seems to get better every year…which really means I am still learning a lot every time I come. One highlight this year was the speech by Jim Rogers—you know, the guy who founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and wrote Investment Biker about his motorcycle ride through six continents in 1990-92? Well, he was there to talk about his more recent three-year (ending in 2002) round the world trip in a Mercedes convertible with his fiancé (whom he married during the trip), as well as his perspectives on the world and investing.

One of the things he told us is that in a major survey people were asked what their #1 dream was, and the dream that came out on top was a road-trip around the world. So now I understand a little bit better why people seem to enjoy reading my blog. FireCat and I have two countries under our belt now…perhaps we’ll make it around the world before we’re done.

After Rogers’ presentation he took questions so I told him that three years is a long time to be on the road and asked him what he most enjoyed doing in his daily activities. He said mostly it was the adventure—the unknown, the challenges each day, sometimes just staying alive. He said he likes talking to the people, the different foods, even just finding a place to stay, and that it’s a huge sensory feast.

I could identify with all of that! Then he said that at the end of the Q&A he would tell a story before he left, and he remembered to do that. His story was that after traveling all over the world (They began in Iceland and went east and after they hit North America they went to Alaska, came down through Vancouver and California to Los Angeles and then to New York), he was doing a presentation in San Jose, California that showed their little bright yellow car. Afterwards, a woman came up to him and asked, “Are you telling me you sat beside each other in that little two-seater car every day for three years?”

When Mr. Rogers said yes, she told him, “My fiancé and I drove from Connecticut to California together and we haven’t spoken to each other since….” (along with a few more graphic details of what they thought of each other after the trip). LOL, at least FireCat and I had an experience more akin to the Rogers’ trip! ;)

OK, I promised to try and identify a good stock tip for you from the conference. It can really differ based on your investing sophistication and life situation, but here are a few:

-- Several people said to short long treasury bonds. One simple way to do this—if you don’t want to buy put options on an ETF or short bonds in the futures market—is to buy RYJUX, an inverse fund on long-term government bonds.

-- Common consensus the past couple of years has been to get out of the dollar. However, a few are now expecting a bounce in the dollar before further downside. Jim Rogers said he will use that bounce to sell all remaining dollars he has. No one advises the Euro as an alternative though and one guy thinks the Euro may not survive at all when it is tested for the first time in the upcoming economic downturn.

-- There were a lot of differences regarding commodities in the short term, but everyone still seems to think they are the place to be long-term (for the next 10 years or so). One company discussed was QCC—based in Canada but traded on the AMEX—that makes real estate loans in Canada where prices have been strong because of commodities. Their price is depressed because no one wants to own lenders right now, but they have no U.S. loans, no subprime loans, have not lost money on any loan in 17 quarters and they can be bought at a discount to book value (“like trading six quarters for $2.00”). Plus, they pay about a 12% dividend. I owned some before the conference and I will be buying more.

Tomorrow I'll tell you about the fireworks competition.